President Donald Trump’s trade agenda is expected to encounter fresh obstacles if Democrats secure control of Congress, with a series of oversight hearings and symbolic votes on tariff reductions likely to appear next year. Nevertheless, the president is likely to stay resolute in pursuing additional tariff measures, according to several trade experts and congressional aides.
Democrats are eager to pass legislation to negate many of Trump’s tariffs and the more archaic statutes backing them, but any gains by the party will run into the reality of Trump’s veto power. Their ability to achieve substantial change, however, will be constrained by the president’s veto authority. Senator Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the tax- and trade-focused Senate Finance Committee, said, ‘One of the most obvious priorities would be repealing Trump’s tariffs on Canada, which are raising prices and harming communities on both sides of the border.’
Democratic Control of Congress
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate to overturn Republicans’ narrow 218-214 and 53-47 majorities. Recent opinion polls give the party an advantage in the House race, while the Senate contest remains too close to call, leaving the chamber well short of the two-thirds supermajority needed to override a veto.
Meanwhile, the administration is crafting plans to rely more heavily on executive actions in the trade arena, reducing the need for congressional approval. If the opposition manages to win control of either chamber, they could initiate symbolic votes on long-delayed trade proposals, such as Senator Chuck Schumer’s “End Trump’s Tariff Tax Act,” which would eliminate the statute that underpins the punitive duties on Canadian imports. The bill, with 28 co-sponsors including Wyden, also calls for refunding all duties collected under the archaic trade laws.
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Oversight Hearings
Securing the gavel of the trade committees would give the minority a platform to launch a steady stream of oversight hearings and investigations into the president’s trade policies. Key targets for scrutiny would include the opaque process used to grant tariff exemptions that benefit particular companies and the overall impact of duties on small-business owners.
A confrontational oversight agenda would represent a departure from the Republican approach, which has largely allowed the administration to operate with minimal interference. Greta Peisch, now a trade partner at Wiley Rein in Washington, said the heightened noise from Capitol Hill is unlikely to deter the president from pursuing additional tariffs during the final two years of his term, including actions related to a forthcoming review of excess industrial capacity in sixteen major trading partners.
Trade Debate
Even if Democrats cannot muster enough votes to pass a full reform bill, the effort could lay the groundwork for a proposal that shapes the next presidential contest. The increased noise from Capitol Hill is unlikely to deter Trump from pursuing more tariffs over his final two years in office, including from a forthcoming investigation into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners, even as he grants exemptions or delays some duties.
White House spokesman Matthew Middleton said, ‘President Trump will never waver from putting America First, whether in trade negotiations or through an economic agenda of tax cuts and deregulation.’ Trading partners also understand Trump’s commitment to keeping tariffs in place, and realize that Congress will not be in a position to remove them.
